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  • Wynn Las Vegas Opens Betting On 2014 Kentucky Derby

    Wynn Las Vegas Kentucky Derby

    Wynn Las Vegas has opened their futures betting book for the 2014 Kentucky Derby, catching the attention of gaming enthusiasts across the U. K. Although it is almost nine months until “the most exciting two minutes in sports,” horse racing fans with an eye on the long term are already queueing up to place their bets on early favorites.

    Nine Months Before The Race There Is A Hundred Horse Field

    Johnny Avello, the director of Race and Sports Operations at Wynn Las Vegas, has used his expertise to exhaustively comb through years of race data and give odds on the still-distant race. There are about a hundred horses in the 2014 futures betting book, most of which have odds between 100-1 and 200-1. At this distance there are only seven horses that stand out far enough from the pack for Mr. Avello to give them better odds than that. D. Wayne Lucas’s colt Strong Mandate was the favorite in the opening odds, starting at 40-1. He has since been passed by veteran trainer Shug McGaughey’s new horse, Honor Code, who has already come down to 35-1. McGaughey trained the winner of last year’s Derby, and many bettors hope that he will repeat the victory.

    What Makes A Horse A Good Bet Right Now?

    With so much time before the race Mr. Avello can only be guided by experience, instinct, and statistics. His primary data comes from the other races that prospective Derby horses ran. Races such as Saratoga and Iroquois are examined closely, which is why Strong Mandate was an early favorite. Although the trainers are also an integral part of the equation, the track record remains the surest guide.

    Avello’s Track Record

    Interestingly, the winner of the 2013 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown, McGaughey’s colt Orb, was only given 200-1 starting odds by Mr. Avello in his 2013 futures betting book. A great number of factors came together to influence the outcome of the 2013 race, especially the unexpected rain and the mud that it created. Golden Soul, the runner-up, was also at 200-1 odds, while the third and fourth place horses opened at 100-1 and 175-1 respectively. The horse that he gave the single best odds to, Bob Baffert’s Power Broker with 45-1, did not even participate in the Derby last year. This demonstrates that, even for the most experienced oddsmaker, there are severe difficulties to long-range predictions of the future.

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  • How to Find a Good Horse Racing Bet

    Are you trying to make a profit betting on horse races and handicapping races? If so, you probably know by now that most of the money is wagered on the favorite and the money is what the game is all about. Learn how to follow the money and beat the people who spend the most and you’ll have a chance, though it is still risky and tough to make a go of it.

    That means that the first step in finding a profitable wager is to look at the horse with most of the money on it and figure out if it is really worth all that confidence. Some people call them vulnerable favorites or false favorites. The favorite, also known as the chalk, doesn’t always have to have a flaw to be a poor betting choice.

    What determines whether or not it is a good bet is whether its probability of winning is higher or lower than the actual payoff figure indicates. For instance, if you practice handicapping and watch enough races you’ll develop the ability to know how often a runner with the favorite’s attributes will win a race. For the sake of our example, let’s say you think the horse that is the people’s choice has a 50-50 chance of winning.

    Let’s also say it is at 2-1 at post time. That means out of ten races, based on a $1 bet, it would return $15 for every $10 wagered on it. In that case, it will be hard not to bet on the favorite rather than another horse. However, if it was at 3-5 odds it would become a poor wager and it would be time to find another horse that has a chance to win and will return good money.

    The best place to start your search for such a horse is in the next two betting choices. Statistically they have the best chance of winning, after the chalk that is. Once again, just like you did with the top horse, you must determine what the chances, or odds, are of that horse winning and compare it to the actual odds.

    Whether you’re using a horse racing handicapping system, playing spot play, or using any other method to pick your horses, the way to actually come out ahead is always the same. You have to know the chances of each horse winning and compare it to the actual odds on the toteboard at post time. You must also allow some wiggle room on that because the odds may go even lower on the last click of the tote when you can no longer bet.